Many have explored the reasons and thoughts that must have gone behind imposition of President’s Rule (PR) in the Indian State of Manipur. To be honest only handful of officials in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs and the top most brass of BJP core leadership including those from Manipur know the facts. The rest are truths, speculations and to the best ‘assessments.’
This article is, at best, an honest assessment of the security implications of PR in Manipur, particularly concerning weapons and narcotics. To present a fair evaluation, it is important to note that much of the general public, both in the valley and the hills, feel relieved with the PR, as their patience had reached its threshold due to the persistent, high-intensity extortion attempts by armed and unarmed volunteers—justified in the name of fighting enemy forces to protect the so-called territorial integrity and communities. However, there is certainly a section that is unhappy with the PR, particularly those who benefited from the unstable security situation through extortion and their newfound identity as protectors in both the valley and the hills.
As everyone is aware, largely there are three umbrella communities in Manipur …Kuki, Meitei and Naga. On a lighter note, since the crisis has been between Kuki and Meitei communities, the Naga community must be wondering …what wrong did we do to come under the PR?.
Since the ethnic crisis, the main complaint of the Kuki community (till the resignation of Hon’ble Chief Minister of Manipur) was that the BJP led Government in Manipur was biased and prejudiced, whereas the complaint of a section of the Meitei community was that some central security forces were biased and did not completely act against the miscreants behind the unguided crude missiles and weaponised drone attacks.
To begin, with the imposition of PR, there will be a competition between hill based and valley based groups to find out who does less with respect to various calls of the Governor including regarding surrendering the looted arms and ammunition and others related to improving the security situation…both sides look into who has returned/done how much …in this case if one goes by the reports it is the hills based (some members of the) Kuki community (who had looted the weapons) which started the process of surrendering the looted weapons, they (all of the Kuki community) also look at the reciprocity of actions (surrendering of looted weapons) from the valley based (some members of the) Meitei community who had looted weapons. More importantly the actions of the Union Government, in case those some members of the valley-based Meitei community do not respond to the call of the Governor of Manipur to honour the timeline. This will apply to all the actions and policies of the administration of the day.
Some analysts argue that with the imposition of PR, the patronage once enjoyed by members of Arambai Tenggol (AT) has waned. However, it would be unwise to overlook the broader public sentiment before launching blanket operations against AT members without solid evidence. Reports suggest that AT has close to 50,000 volunteers—both armed and unarmed—and if each of them belongs to a different family, that translates to an influence over nearly 2,50,000 individuals.
But the beauty of people of Manipur is that they believe in hard evidence of mischiefs by anyone including the VBIGs, AT, various members belonging to 25 groups under the umbrella of Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and United Peoples Front (UPF). This is precisely why security forces must ensure counterinsurgency operations are backed by irrefutable proof. After all, anyone with a shred of values and ethics would find it rather embarrassing to support those engaged in ruthless extortion and senseless threats—unless, of course, they enjoy playing the role of an unwitting patron of crime.
Although the Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the India-Myanmar border is regulated, it is important to note that the border remains unfenced. This leaves room for movement, creating both opportunities and justifications for certain members of the Meitei and Kuki communities to facilitate the bidirectional flow of weapons, information, and cadres across the border. Ultimately, in any war or insurgency, success hinges on logistics, a steady supply of recruits and volunteers, financial resources, intelligence, and the availability of safe havens.
If one looks at the narcotics trafficking, Chrystal Methapmhetamine based pills will continue to enter India because its manufacturing is within the factories and hence weather independent. Whereas the heroin and brown sugar inflow will depend on the season as the poppy crop is grown from August-September with flowering hence harvesting (of latex for opium) will start from January and goes on until February & March.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) report titled ‘Myanmar Opium Survey 2024: Cultivation, Production and Implications’ (released in December 2024) saw a 18% increase in area (with a total of 832 ha) under poppy cultivation in Chin State bordering Manipur and Mizoram States of India compared to 2023.
On an average a hectare of poppy produces 22 kg of dry opium and 10 kg of opium processing yields 1 kg of heroin. So, if one goes by UNODC 2024 Report, Chin State has potential to produce 1664 kg of heroin (after harvest between January to February, 2025) which definitely will not go to other parts of Myanmar but to India.
The recent seizure of high-grade heroin in Manipur’s Thoubal District on February 22, 2024, reportedly sourced from the Myanmar border, is almost certainly from an old stock dating back to 2023. This aligns with reports that Chin State produced 700 hectares of poppy that year, yielding 16.2 metric tons of opium and 1,400 kg of heroin.
In addition, the all out war by USA against narcotics including Fentanyl, heroin and crystal methamphetamine will force narcotics operators to look for other markets and India will be one of them. Despite high density deployment of security forces both in the valley and hills districts, heroin movement continues to prevail. With PR or without it, narcotics trafficking will never stop unless there is concerted cooperation among all the stakeholders including the plugging of sources of supply and demand and movement of raw materials used in manufacturing and processing of various kinds of narcotics. Few such raw materials are Pseudoephedrine used in manufacturing of Crystal Methamphetamine and various kinds of Nitrogen, calcium and potassium containing fertilisers used in processing of opium into brown sugar and heroin.
Political developments in the West do have implications for Myanmar and, in turn, for India. One must consider that with Donald Jr. Trump’s return to the White House and a clampdown on U.S. assistance abroad—including USAID and other forms of aid—the local resistance forces, including the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-B), Chin National Army, and other Chin Defence Forces active in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region and Chin State, will lose critical support, particularly financial aid and arms. As a consequence, the military junta is likely to gain the upper hand.
Historically the Republicans have never been harsh towards Government led by Myanmar Armed Forces (MAFs). This will weaken the anti-military forces in Myanmar and as a spillover, security situation in Manipur. There are several reports that VBIGs have been working with Myanmar Armed Forces inside Myanmar especially along the India-Myanmar border in Sagaing Region. Due to actions of PDFs and KNA-B, some of the VBIGs working with MAFs were forced to move north of Homalin Township and Myothit Subtownship.
The MAF-led government is set to regain some strength, further bolstered by the possibility of a Trump-mediated peace between Russia and Ukraine. Such a resolution would also enable Myanmar’s military to secure arms and ammunition from Russia, one of its key allies. As the junta regains power, VBIGs will also grow stronger, intensifying their fight against PDFs and other EAGs with full force while working to re-establish or reclaim their bases inside Myanmar.
With the PR in place and the Manipur Governor’s call for the surrender of looted weapons, a significant portion of valley-based arms will find their way to Myanmar. Many armed and trained cadres belonging to VBIGs and AT, especially those accused of serious crimes, will relocate to their established or newly formed bases across the border, taking the looted weapons with them. The same applies to armed cadres from the Kuki-Chin communities facing similar accusations, some of whom may head to Chin State to join the fight if the junta escalates its offensive, particularly through aerial strikes against ethnic armed groups and local resistance forces. Additionally, as the military regime grows stronger, the Chin National Army and other Chin-based resistance groups will require more arms and ammunition to counter its advances. Consequently, some of the looted weapons will be diverted to Chin State and the Sagaing Region of Myanmar.
It is therefore pertinent for all the security agencies of the country to look into these potentially possible developments and take all necessary measures to bring peace and stability to the state in particular and the region in general.
